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π±
Chennai Basin, Tamil Nadu
LIVE WEATHER PHONE APPReal-Time Meteorological Ground Truth • Updated Just Now
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29.4Β°
C
π§οΈ Moderate Monsoonal Showers
H: 31.8Β° • L: 24.6Β° • Feels like 33.2Β°C
π§οΈ
π§ Humidity
78%
Dew point 24Β°C
π¨ Wind Speed
16.5 km/h
SSW Breeze
π§οΈ Precipitation
2.4 mm
Cloudburst watch
βοΈ UV Index
5 (Mod)
Safe with cap
π§ Air Pressure
1008 hPa
Steady basin
π Air Quality
AQI 38
Good clean air
β±οΈ Hourly Forecast (Next 24 Hours)
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7-to-10 Day Weather Outlook & AI Reliability
Live Meteorological NWP • KPR09 Calibrated
Forecast Controls
Search any location in India and configure ensemble parameters
Lat: 13.0827 | Lon: 80.2707 | Chennai Basin, Tamil Nadu
Live Open-Meteo NWP Grid
Basin Presets:
Operational multi-member physics runs
to
Medium-range outlook (Default: Day 3β10)
Average AI Confidence
--
%
Calibrated against historical error rates
High-Risk Days
--
days
Days requiring dispatch hedging
Location Baseline MAE
--
km/h
Verified 90-day archive ground truth
Ensemble Members Evaluated
--
runs
NOAA GFS Multi-Physics Ensemble
Advanced Meteorological Graphics Suite
Multi-member distribution, spread-skill diagnostics, and failure risk profile
Live Ensemble Forecast & Reliability Table
Real dates, ensemble mean, spread (Ο), 80% prediction interval, confidence score, and risk status
Click any row to inspect algorithmic explanation
| Date | Horizon | Deterministic | Ensemble Mean | Spread (Ο) | 80% Interval (P10 - P90) | AI Confidence | Risk Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Click "Fetch Live Forecast" to query live Open-Meteo APIs for selected location. | |||||||
Forecast Reliability Breakdown
Select any row from the table above for the transparent algorithmic flag explanation.
Disaster Preparedness Decision Support (Civil Defense Advisory)
Contingency actions derived from medium-range rainfall ensemble spread and confidence detection
Level 0: Baseline Readiness
Operational Civil Defense Posture:
Evaluating medium-range atmospheric uncertainty...
Emergency contingency cards will populate when live forecast is loaded.
How Forecast Confidence Changes Emergency Decisions (KPR09 Decision-Support Matrix)
| Forecast Condition | Confidence State | Civil Defense Action Protocol | Operational Rationale (Avoiding False Alarms) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Rain (β₯40 mm) | HIGHER CONFIDENCE | Level 3 Pre-Alert: Pre-position boats, verify shelter staff, prepare evacuation corridors. | NWP convergence justifies resource mobilization expenses. |
| Heavy Rain (β₯40 mm) | LOWER CONFIDENCE | Level 2 Standby: 2-hr crew alert, radar monitoring; DO NOT order premature evacuation. | Large spread indicates uncertain timing/track; prevents public panic & false alarms. |
| Moderate Rain (15β40 mm) | Any Confidence | Level 1 Routine: Clear stormwater drains, log reservoir intake, ensure underpass pumps live. | Rain within municipal drainage capacity; prevent local street waterlogging. |
| Light / Dry (<15 mm) | Any Confidence | Level 0 Baseline: Standard municipal operations. | No meteorological disaster trigger. |
Scientific & Operational Disclosure:
Confidence assessment reflects medium-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble convergence. It is strictly decoupled from physical flood modeling. Evacuation routes on Tab 2 are calculated only when confirmed terrain inundation or incident reports exist.
Historical Evaluation & Statistical Validation
Archived operational forecasts paired with ERA5 reanalysis ground truth (Past 90 Days)
Chronological 70/30 Split • Zero Data Leakage
Held-Out Test Set Verification Metrics
| Historical Verified Cases | -- |
| Chronological Train / Test Split | -- / -- |
| Test Set Period | -- |
| Mean Absolute Error (MAE) | -- |
| Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) | -- |
| Precision (Poor Forecast Detection) | -- |
| Recall (Poor Forecast Detection) | -- |
| F1-Score | -- |
| Climatology Baseline MAE | -- |
| Persistence Baseline MAE | -- |
| False Alarm Ratio (FAR) | -- |
| Missed Warning Rate | -- |
Probabilistic Skill & Calibration Diagnostic
| Model Brier Score | -- |
| Climatology Baseline Brier Score | -- |
| Brier Skill Score (BSS) | -- |
| Improvement vs Baseline | -- |
| Calibration Status | -- |